Behavior is often called “rational”

When it uses mathematical probabilities

To predict the future

A moment’s thought, however

Causes us to realize

We don’t know future probabilities

The world doesn’t work like a roulette wheel

Where there are a finite number

Of contrived outcomes; nevertheless –

The usual assumption is that

Future probability

Is identical to past frequency

Which is irrational

Therefore, in order to be rational

We must be irrational

Before you dismiss all of this

As so much logic chopping

Consider

The amount of modern life

Dictated to us

By people claiming

With high mathematical probability

To know the future

Of the entire planet or universe

The solution is not to dispense with predictions

(Which, it must be admitted,

Is what the author of these words

Does for a living)

But to couch them

With due humility

As to the limits of such things

And not use them

As a giant con

Designed to fool

The mathematically uninitiated

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Tagged: Tags Con Men David Hume Forecasting Hubris Mathematical Modeling Poetry Politics Predicting

## Published by Beleaguered Servant

Owen "Beleaguered" Servant (a/k/a Sibelius Russell) writes poetry mostly, with an occasional pause to have a seizure.
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Yeah!